Gov. Bobby Jindal (R-Louisiana)

Forget the performance critiques of Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal’s Republican response to Barack Obama’s State-of-the-Union-in-name-only speech Tuesday night. Plenty of Democrats sucked in the same role following the far less gifted orator George W Bush (remember Tim Kaine in 2006 or Harry Reid in 2005? Lordy they were bad!). Jindal’s problem wasn’t performance, it was substance and it reaffirms our diagnosis that the Republican Party is in critical condition.

Many Republicans leaders, egged on by right-wing radio hosts like Rush and Hannity, have charted a course of total opposition to the stimulus plan. It’s a big gamble that looks a lot like they’re doubling down on a 40-year political ideology that voters appear to have rejected.

The meat of Jindal’s speech was this:

“Democratic leaders say their legislation will grow the economy. What it will do is grow the government, increase our taxes down the line, and saddle future generations with debt. Who among us would ask our children for a loan, so we could spend money we do not have, on things we do not need? That is precisely what the Democrats in Congress just did. It’s irresponsible. And it’s no way to strengthen our economy, create jobs, or build a prosperous future for our children.”

In other words government is bad. That has been the (successful) message of the Republican Party since Ronald Reagan’s 1980 campaign and it  reached it’s apex during the second Bush term. The problem is poll after poll — including two prominent ones released late Monday and covered here — make a very persuasive case that a fairly healthy majority of Americans simply don’t believe that any more. And faced with very visceral economic fear they trust the government more than they trust corporations.

Jindal’s talking-points-list of “wasteful spending” doesn’t even make sense. It’s not hard for Americans to see how replacing $300 million worth of government cars would help the auto industry and therefore the economy. Even people who’ve never ridden on a train get why $8 billion for high-speed rail is an investment that will stimulate the economy by putting people to work. And the $140 million for volcano monitoring is one of those red-meat for Republicans lines that has made no real headway with shellshocked voters.

Republicans are talking to a shrinking group of primarily rural and exurban older white men from mid-west and southern states. “High-speed rail” and “government-run” anything may be hot buttons for them but they aren’t for the majority that elected Obama. A majority made up primarily of urban and suburban women and young people from coastal and big mid-western states. The country has changed but some in the GOP don’t seem to have dealt with that fact yet.

Remember that by substantial majorities voters say they approve of the stimulus bill AND the Obama’s housing plan. Republicans are now playing with fire, essentially betting that none of this will work and they can blame Obama and Democrats for it. It’s a long-shot that runs counter to the most basic rules of politics: It’s the economy stupid. If the economy is still in the tank a 18 months from now when campaigns for the next Congressional elections will be hot and heavy Republicans will try and use their opposition to win.

The problem is you can’t beat something with nothing and the public has not heard any realistic Republican big picture alternative. Cutting taxes and government isn’t selling any more. For now they simply see the GOP as being good at one thing: Saying ‘No’.