Gay Marriage Ruling on Tap (Twentieth Century Fox)

It will happen in the next 90 days. A decision that may reignite a culture war that could consume the Obama Administration’s best-laid plans on health care and the economy. Or not.

Thursday California’s Supreme Court heard arguments for and against the proposal that it overturn Proposition 8 — the initiative voters approved in November that overturned the Court’s prior ruling making same-sex marriage legal. Prop 8 passed with the help of a massive infusion of people and cash from the Mormon Church along with Christian and conservative groups after more than 18-thousand gay and lesbian couples had legally married.

While the justices appear likely to allow Prop 8 to stand they appear equally likely to allow those married gay couples to stay married. Whatever the eventual decision it will be seen as fundamentally un-American and unfair by a pretty large chunk of people.

Especially among those who are ambivalent about same-sex marriage the idea that the Supreme Court would overrule the will of the people as expressed by their votes for Prop 8 is likely to be very troubling. Opponents of court rulings (mainly conservatives but liberals at times as well) have gotten a fair amount of traction from demonizing the courts as “imperial” and “undemocratic.”

Likewise — especially with those who are ambivalent about same-sex marriage — the idea that same-sex marriage is now illegal but the 18-thousand couples who tied the knot before November get a free pass is inherently unfair and wrong. Think about it: If gay marriage is so bad that it should be illegal, why then is it okay for a select group who got in under the wire?

At the end of the day what this will provide is fuel for Republicans and conservatives to fan the flames of latent homophobia and use it to distract and challenge Obama. While it’s true Obama said he opposed same-sex marriage AND opposed Prop 8 (cognitive dissonance alert!) nothing reshapes the debate in Washington faster than a culture war.

You can see the salivating anchors on Fox and MSNBC now, fulminating as over-the-top graphics slide by, stoking the food fight between guests chosen for their ability to make good TV, if not necessarily any sense. And of course no one will be challenged on any FACTS. But I digress.

The reason this has so much potential is the economy, stupid. There’s plenty of history of scapegoating minority groups during tough economic times — the whole divide and conquer thing. Fan the flames of some envy and hatred enough and Obama’s highly ambitious and contentious proposals on really important things will be starved for oxygen. Especially if his most ardent supporters are pushing back from the other direction, insisting that Obama take their side if the court rules against them. Either way Obama will be forced to wade into waters he wants to avoid entirely.

Of course there is another scenario — and one that would say a lot about how much politics and culture in America really as changed. If the California court’s ruling blows over with just a minor flurry of chatter it will be because a majority of the voting public no longer buys into the fear and gay rights advocates recognize they have lost a battle in a war they are winning.

Polls have shown a steady progression of tolerance for gays and lesbians over the decades and younger voters in particular are completely nonplussed by the subject. Even a majority of self-described evangelicals under 30 now support same-sex marriage or civil union. Advocates have good reason for believing that civil unions will and same-sex marriage will eventually become commonplace.

But until then we watch and wait for a court in California and the reaction that follows.