Columbia County

What happens this coming Tuesday in towns like Claverack and Surprise and Truthville is going to set insider Washington abuzz. That’s when voters in those and a few hundred other towns and villages in the 20th Congressional district of New York decide whether a Republican or Democrat replaces Kirsten Gillibrand as their Congressperson.

Special elections always give Beltway insiders something to talk about outside the proper campaign season and this one is especially rich, coming just 10 weeks (really!) after Barack Obama took office with sky-high public approval ratings. Everybody is prepared to spin this as something large and significant — something that speaks to a larger national truth. But will it? As someone who has a house in the district I would caution against jumping to any conclusions.

The 20th has an odd recent history — despite being the most Republican House district in the state (here’s the list if you’re into that kind of thing) with 67,000 more registered Republicans than Democrats, Gillibrand was able to win the seat in 2006 as part of the nationwide Democrats-winning-Republican-seats midterm elections that threw control of the House to Dems.

Gillibrand was aided by an incumbent who to some degree took his reelection for granted and ran into last minute legal problems with claims that he had fought with his wife and that the State Police had helped cover it up. Still, Gillibrand was no shoe-in and only won by raising substantial funds and outworking John Sweeney throughout the campaign.

In November national Republicans targeted Gillibrand as a “must-remove” incumbent but ran a little-known (to voters) former state party chairman with an unfortunately patrician name (Sandy Treadwell) who outraised and outspent Gillibrand but was incapable of outshining her. It didn’t hurt that Obamamania was sweeping the country.

But that was then and this is now. Obamamania has diminished, especially among Republicans who actually voted for him. So the GOP has gone all-in on this race (new GOP chair Michael Steele has promised a victory) hoping to use a win here to make the case that the tide has turned and the bottom of the Republican market has been reached.

Democrats, on the other hand, are playing to win, sort of (Murphy has his own money but support from Obama as been limited to a mailing), but if they don’t they will argue that a loss means nothing. Nothing other than some very Republican-leaning districts are bound to be won back by Republicans eventually.

Should Democrat Scott Murphy win, of course, the roles will be reversed and Democrats will say this special election proves voters approve of all the party has done in Washington in these last 10 weeks. Republicans will simply have to lick their wounds. There is much greater downside risk here for the GOP.

None of these arguments are really as clean-cut as that though. As the Times front-paged Saturday, Murphy the successful businessman, may face anti-business backlash from voters incensed by the AIG bonus mess among other things. And Republican Jim Tedisco, who pitifully refused to support or oppose the stimulus plan (which is very popular in the 20th), might still be punished for being a career politician who spent the last 27 years in the loathed New York State legislature.

While national concerns may drive voters in this district it’s worth looking a bit deeper than the Rep/Dem split shown in the registration numbers. While there are about 181,000 registered Republicans and only 113,000 Democrats there are 127,000 independent or Independence Party voters (many people register for the Independence Party thinking they are registering as independents which are actually called “blank” voters in New York). Those independents hold the key to why the 20th is not such a simple nut to crack.

Looking over the results from 2006 and 2008 Gillibrand only lost one of the district’s 10 counties in 2006 and none in 2008. Murphy is not likely to repeat that performance but where Gillibrand won the most votes is telling. A district once dominated by Saratoga County (Tedisco’s home stomping grounds) is now more evenly split between Saratoga and a group of counties in the southern end of the sprawling district. Columbia, Dutchess, and Greene Counties total roughly the same vote produced in Saratoga and these counties have changed markedly in a decade.

Following 9/11 the exodus of New York City residents eager to find a simpler life led thousands to relocate to these counties. In Columbia County more than half my neighbors are transplants. Many weekenders even register to vote in these counties figuring their votes count more here than in the city. Then there are the new legion of highly-educated workers associated with Sematech who have moved to Rensselaer, Saratoga, and Warren Counties and brought their independent to liberal political beliefs with them. The 20th is not what it was and registration figures lag in accurately describing it.

If Murphy wins it probably does NOT mean the nation as a whole supports what Democrats are doing in Washington (they may but this race won’t prove it) any more than if Tedisco wins it means Americans have lost faith in the President and the Democrats.

The story here is more parochial and more basic. In a changing district, will the old guard maintain it’s mojo by turning out in big numbers? Or will the newcomers show their muscle as they become the new majority in a “new 20th”?

The fact that this is what this race is really about won’t stop the DC gang from drawing every other possible conclusion from the results but at least you are now forearmed and forewarned.