On the Border

It nearly cost John McCain the Republican nomination and it keeps the otherwise feckless Lou Dobbs employed. So what’s Barack Obama doing digging up immigration reform? It’s not as crazy as it first seems.

Sure Obama already has a pretty full plate — the economy, the banking system, health care, Pakistan, Iraq, Afghanistan, etc — and  immigration is hardly an easy lift. In fact immigration is a bit like gun control and to a lesser degree abortion rights. These are all issues that galvanize opponents far more effectively than they do supporters.

Decades of research by political scientists has demonstrated that passionate single-issue voters can have a profound impact on how lawmakers deal with certain highly-charged issues. For instance plenty of people may favor some gun control measures but there’s no evidence that they vote on that single issue. For hard-core gun control opponents, however, it is often the only issue on which they base their vote. Polling in West Virginia in 2000 indicate Al Gore may have lost the normally Democratic state because of his position on guns (which helps explain why four years later John Kerry went hunting).

In the case of immigration reform several polls this year show that voters rate it as a pretty low priority in the grand scheme of things (10th of 12 in a CNN poll and 17th of 20 in Pew poll — see here for full details). But among those for whom it is an important issue it is huge. Lou Dobbs sustains five hours a week of prime cable news programming largely on his opposition to any illegal immigration. Listen to any conservative talk radio show and no matter what the issue there will be at least a few callers who want to talk about illegal immigration.

Likewise immigration is a central issue for Hispanics — especially those from certain Central and South America countries that are the source of a majority of the illegal immigrants currently coming into the country. Republicans in California have learned the long hard way what xenophobic-appearing immigration talk will do in a state where almost 1 in 5 voters is Latino: Republican Governor Pete Wilson’s anti-illegal-immigration talk in the early 90s still tar the party among Latino voters. Fully 75% of the Hispanic vote this year went to Obama and the fact that the California legislature is dominated by Democrats is largely attributable to the GOP’s loss of Latino support.

A side note to this comes in today’s LA Times. The Times front pages that there is evidence illegal immigrants are beginning to leave the US and that people in some countries who might have headed to the US have been discouraged by news of the poor economy and tougher enforcement actions.

With all that in mind Obama may very well be making a smart move: Fulfilling a campaign promise to a group that nationally gave him 67% of their vote while tossing the ball into their court. When he announces his plans next month he’s expected to urge advocates to build a consensus around a comprehensive plan involving some form of amnesty along with tougher business-side enforcement.

Wednesday the administration made a move towards tougher enforcement by appointing a “border czar”, which can be seen in the broader political context. He’ll set the stage to appeal to the broad middle of the American electorate which is both ambivalent and conflicted about immigration policy. Majorities think there are too many illegal immigrants entering the US but that sending them home is not the answer.

Certainly the most vocal opponents could still derail any “consensus” deal that is worked out but if a majority of Americans think the plan was developed in good faith and with an eye towards resolving the broader public’s competing concerns, those opponents could be marginalized in the same way Republicans have been on issue after issue during the first months of Obama’s term.