Is the GOP Dead? (Threedonia.com)

Conservatives like small. Small government. Small states. Small taxes. And apparently a small political party to call their own. How else to explain the rapid desire to purge the fast-shrinking Republican Party of anyone who dares to suggest small is NOT better for a political party?

The latest example comes from Bobby Eberle who runs the website GOPUSA and it concerns George W. Bush’s first Secretary of State, Republican Colin Powell.

In a recent speech, Powell took swipes at Rush Limbaugh, Gov. Sarah Palin, and made his usual claims that the Republican Party has moved too far to the right. Give Powell credit, when he sees an opportunity to be opportunistic, he seizes it. The problem is that he is completely off track and would be much better suited joining Arlen Specter and the Democrats.

Eberle joins Rush Limbaugh and plenty of others from the conservative opinion whirlpool in calling for the ouster of any Republican who advocates tinkering with the party’s message to make it even the tiniest bit more moderate. Limbaugh famously said Arlen Specter should take “McCain and his daughter” with him when he left the GOP and the bright red blogosphere has been filled with angry calls for other Republican moderates like Maine’s Senators Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins to leave the party too. (Here’s one really amazing thread.)

The argument goes like this: Since we’re already in deep doo-doo (having lost the White House, 15 Senate seats, and 51 House seats in four years) we might as well go all in. Purge all the moderate and liberal elements and refocus on a hard-core conservative message — low taxes, little government, religious social values on gays and abortion, no gun restrictions, big military. Get back, as Rush loves to preach, to Reagan. Limbaugh is first among many in arguing that Reagan was the last true conservative in the White House and he got there because he was a true conservative. Those now advocating turning away from Reagan, he says, don’t want to win.

When they look at the past and see landslide Presidential victories and don’t want to do it again that’s not a refutation of Reagan that’s not saying, “screw Reagan” that’s saying, “We don’t want those issues, we don’t want to win with those issues.”

Which is precisely the opposite of the truth. Reagan won in spite of his conservative politics because he did what any effective candidate does: He reframed his views to fit voters’ desires. He was, remember, the Great Communicator. And even if you don’t buy that the notion there’s this little gem of a fact conservatives like Rush are ignoring — it’s not 1980. America has changed. Here’s more of Rush:

I’ve been hearing we can’t win without the black vote — been hearing that all my life…. We can’t win without the women’s vote. and we’ve won without majorities of both. Now there’s a new one — we can’t win without the Hispanic vote.

Republicans have done best with white male voters for decades. It has been the real base of the party. In 1980 88% of those voting were white and 52% were men. In 2008 74% of the electorate was white and 47% was male. And those pesky Hispanics? Just two percent in 1980, 9% last year. But still Rush is not convinced that conservatives need to change. He insists issues like abortion are moving in the right direction.

The demographics have changed? Abortion is moving more and more in the pro-life favor in every public poll that’s taken.

Alas this is also simply not true. In poll after poll the abortion issue has changed very little since Roe v. Wade made it legal. For instance when Gallup asked about abortion in 1975, the results were not much different from when the pollsters asked the same questions in 1980 (when Reagan was elected), 1990 (when Bush was President), 2000 (when Clinton was ending his term), and 2008.

Always Legal           Sometimes Legal         Never Legal

1975                     21                                 54                             22
1980                     25                                 53                             18
1990                     31                                 53                             12
2000                     28                                 51                             19
2008                     28                                 54                             17

Source: Gallup Poll

The fact is Rush and the other conservatives-in-denial refuse to acknowledge what is demonstrably true from what they wish reality was. For the GOP, November’s election was a traumatic event — like a death in the family. There are 5 stages of recovery from such an event and some conservatives have a way to go before they run the list.

The 5 Stages of Grief
1. Denial
2. Guilt
3. Anger
4. Depression
5. Acceptance

On this scale Rush seems to be at about stage 3 (being temperamentally incapable of working through stage 2) while the Republican group out on its listening tour (Romney, McCain, Jeb Bush, etc) actually appear to be at stage 5. When more Republicans accept the reality that the electorate is not what it was in 1980 and that social values issues never have resonance in tough economic times they will be on the path towards reconstruction. That’s why Democrats have been so eager to keep Rush talking. He’s doing their work for them.

Still, sooner or later enough conservatives will get tired of losing. Democrats would be foolish to get complacent.