Gov. Bobby Jindal (R-Louisiana)

Forget the performance critiques of Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal’s Republican response to Barack Obama’s State-of-the-Union-in-name-only speech Tuesday night. Plenty of Democrats sucked in the same role following the far less gifted orator George W Bush (remember Tim Kaine in 2006 or Harry Reid in 2005? Lordy they were bad!). Jindal’s problem wasn’t performance, it was substance and it reaffirms our diagnosis that the Republican Party is in critical condition.

Many Republicans leaders, egged on by right-wing radio hosts like Rush and Hannity, have charted a course of total opposition to the stimulus plan. It’s a big gamble that looks a lot like they’re doubling down on a 40-year political ideology that voters appear to have rejected.

The meat of Jindal’s speech was this:

“Democratic leaders say their legislation will grow the economy. What it will do is grow the government, increase our taxes down the line, and saddle future generations with debt. Who among us would ask our children for a loan, so we could spend money we do not have, on things we do not need? That is precisely what the Democrats in Congress just did. It’s irresponsible. And it’s no way to strengthen our economy, create jobs, or build a prosperous future for our children.”

In other words government is bad. That has been the (successful) message of the Republican Party since Ronald Reagan’s 1980 campaign and it  reached it’s apex during the second Bush term. The problem is poll after poll — including two prominent ones released late Monday and covered here — make a very persuasive case that a fairly healthy majority of Americans simply don’t believe that any more. And faced with very visceral economic fear they trust the government more than they trust corporations.

Jindal’s talking-points-list of “wasteful spending” doesn’t even make sense. It’s not hard for Americans to see how replacing $300 million worth of government cars would help the auto industry and therefore the economy. Even people who’ve never ridden on a train get why $8 billion for high-speed rail is an investment that will stimulate the economy by putting people to work. And the $140 million for volcano monitoring is one of those red-meat for Republicans lines that has made no real headway with shellshocked voters.

Republicans are talking to a shrinking group of primarily rural and exurban older white men from mid-west and southern states. “High-speed rail” and “government-run” anything may be hot buttons for them but they aren’t for the majority that elected Obama. A majority made up primarily of urban and suburban women and young people from coastal and big mid-western states. The country has changed but some in the GOP don’t seem to have dealt with that fact yet.

Remember that by substantial majorities voters say they approve of the stimulus bill AND the Obama’s housing plan. Republicans are now playing with fire, essentially betting that none of this will work and they can blame Obama and Democrats for it. It’s a long-shot that runs counter to the most basic rules of politics: It’s the economy stupid. If the economy is still in the tank a 18 months from now when campaigns for the next Congressional elections will be hot and heavy Republicans will try and use their opposition to win.

The problem is you can’t beat something with nothing and the public has not heard any realistic Republican big picture alternative. Cutting taxes and government isn’t selling any more. For now they simply see the GOP as being good at one thing: Saying ‘No’.

CNBC's Rick Santelli Rants

Last week the media formed a now-normal closed loop regurgitating the “news” that Americans were “deeply split” (NY Post) on Obama and his housing plan.

The cable nets went full-tilt especially after a CNBC reporter checked his credibility at the door of the Chicago Board of Trade and went on a stream-of-consciousness rant about how Obama’s housing plan reminded him of nothing more than Cuba under Castro.

By Sunday when the nets rolled out their gabfests it was no longer a question. The debates were over how bad Americans hated the housing plan, and by extension how diminished the President was because of it. But the idea that true populism could come from the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade where CNBC’s Rick Santelli actually said with a straight face as he turned to the crowd of well-to-do traders, “a pretty good statistical cross-section of America, the silent majority.”

So anyway…. Monday brought a reminder of how the incestuous media coupled with the inside-the-beltway brigade are so often absolutely wrong about what average Americans actually think. Two big polls showing Obama’s plans broadly popular with voters.

The New York Times/CBS News Poll found that voters approved the housing plan 61% – 20%. The ABC/Washington Post Poll reports voters approve the stimulus plan 64% – 35%. What was that about the “silent majority” Rick?

The most telling numbers about what Americans think of what’s happening in Washington, however, are these: In both surveys roughly three-quarters of those polled say they believe Obama is trying to work with Republicans. Fewer than a third believe Republicans are trying to work with Obama.

Of course what other conclusion could voters draw when not a single Republican House member voted for the stimulus, some Republican Governors say they would rather not take stimulus money if it means expanding unemployment benefits, and other Republicans fresh from arguing the stimulus didn’t do enough about housing now say they don’t like Obama’s housing bill because it may help some people who shouldn’t have gotten a mortgage in the first place.

The media bigshots and the markets and the bankers and the traders and the normally Republican-leaning financial industry types may all be in a tizzy about the new Administration’s historic interventions in the economy — they may claim there’s a wave of “populist revolt” spreading across the country — but Americans who actually live outside the cultured cocoons of comfort have a different, far more visceral understanding of our economic plight and what might be required to fix it.

Unlike the denizens of drummed-up “news theater”, regular Americans know plenty of people who no longer have jobs. They know plenty of people who got no severance with their pink slip and have no prospects for work. They know the desperate look of the family breadwinner facing foreclosure. And they know that we are all in this together. Your neighbor’s plight could spread like cancer.

And so perhaps the talking heads in media and money and politics could take a breath here and realize what the people got long ago: This isn’t — cue the dramatic music and animated segment intro — “America on the Ropes.” It’s not an excuse for silly gamesmanship and wordsmithing. This is a deep economic abyss that is sucking in our fellow citizens. We need clear-headed fact-based reporting. Not fancy graphics and pseudo-populist on-air ravings.

House in Foreclosure

For the better part of a year people on all sides of the political and economic theory spectrum have been saying the economic meltdown cannot be fixed until the mortgage mess is cleared up. Now Barack Obama is taking action to do just that. But is it enough?

That’s been the question asked of every action the previous and current administrations have taken trying to respond to the recession and it’s entirely appropriate this time. Obama’s plan could cost $275 billion over time and will help a maximum of around nine million homeowners — some under water (owing more on their house than it’s now worth) — others facing foreclosure.

The plan is bigger and broader than expected but nevertheless came under fire from consumer groups for falling short, and wealthy homeowners for not helping them. Seriously.

The Wall Street Journal (land of extraordinary quotes — normally on it’s opinion pages) has an article detailing why some homeowners feel like they’re being left out. That’s because they are. Here’s some of the Journal’s article:

“While real-estate professionals applauded the refinance provisions, which the White House says could help four million to five million homeowners, lots of borrowers wouldn’t be eligible. For example, the refinance provision is limited to borrowers whose mortgages are owned or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac, the government-backed mortgage companies. That essentially shuts out wealthy borrowers who would like to refinance but can’t because they own expensive homes financed with so-called jumbo mortgages, which are too large to be owned by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.”

How big is too big? So-called jumbo or non-conforming loans are from $417,000 and up. Big for Boise but bupkis for Brooklyn Heights or Babylon. The Journal found a few angry house-rich folks:

“Steve Rosenberg, a 44-year-old institutional stock broker in Chicago, has been trying to refinance his $815,000 option adjustable-rate mortgage for months. But his bank is requiring him to put an additional $150,000 of equity into his home, something he is reluctant to do because his income has been cut in half over the past year. For jumbo borrowers, he said, the government’s message is, ‘You’re on your own.’”

Well, yeah. Forgive me for being a little confused here but if the entire economy is stuck in reverse and most economists believe the housing crisis is a significant reason why, then don’t we all benefit from stabilizing housing prices and clearing the bad mortgages from the system? Not that Obama’s approach will do that entirely but judging from the “expert” response it seems a reasonable start to tackle homeowners in the bottom 80% of the income ladder before helping a guy with an $815,000 mortgage.

It’s one of those “you can’t have it both ways” deals. You can criticize the government for using taxpayer money to try and stimulate the economy and staunch the mortgage bloodbath but you can’t then turn around and complain that the government is NOT using taxpayer money to help wealthy people refinance their mortgages.

Surely there’s plenty of blame to go around. Once the economy is  actually working again.