On the Border

It nearly cost John McCain the Republican nomination and it keeps the otherwise feckless Lou Dobbs employed. So what’s Barack Obama doing digging up immigration reform? It’s not as crazy as it first seems.

Sure Obama already has a pretty full plate — the economy, the banking system, health care, Pakistan, Iraq, Afghanistan, etc — and  immigration is hardly an easy lift. In fact immigration is a bit like gun control and to a lesser degree abortion rights. These are all issues that galvanize opponents far more effectively than they do supporters.

Decades of research by political scientists has demonstrated that passionate single-issue voters can have a profound impact on how lawmakers deal with certain highly-charged issues. For instance plenty of people may favor some gun control measures but there’s no evidence that they vote on that single issue. For hard-core gun control opponents, however, it is often the only issue on which they base their vote. Polling in West Virginia in 2000 indicate Al Gore may have lost the normally Democratic state because of his position on guns (which helps explain why four years later John Kerry went hunting).

In the case of immigration reform several polls this year show that voters rate it as a pretty low priority in the grand scheme of things (10th of 12 in a CNN poll and 17th of 20 in Pew poll — see here for full details). But among those for whom it is an important issue it is huge. Lou Dobbs sustains five hours a week of prime cable news programming largely on his opposition to any illegal immigration. Listen to any conservative talk radio show and no matter what the issue there will be at least a few callers who want to talk about illegal immigration.

Likewise immigration is a central issue for Hispanics — especially those from certain Central and South America countries that are the source of a majority of the illegal immigrants currently coming into the country. Republicans in California have learned the long hard way what xenophobic-appearing immigration talk will do in a state where almost 1 in 5 voters is Latino: Republican Governor Pete Wilson’s anti-illegal-immigration talk in the early 90s still tar the party among Latino voters. Fully 75% of the Hispanic vote this year went to Obama and the fact that the California legislature is dominated by Democrats is largely attributable to the GOP’s loss of Latino support.

A side note to this comes in today’s LA Times. The Times front pages that there is evidence illegal immigrants are beginning to leave the US and that people in some countries who might have headed to the US have been discouraged by news of the poor economy and tougher enforcement actions.

With all that in mind Obama may very well be making a smart move: Fulfilling a campaign promise to a group that nationally gave him 67% of their vote while tossing the ball into their court. When he announces his plans next month he’s expected to urge advocates to build a consensus around a comprehensive plan involving some form of amnesty along with tougher business-side enforcement.

Wednesday the administration made a move towards tougher enforcement by appointing a “border czar”, which can be seen in the broader political context. He’ll set the stage to appeal to the broad middle of the American electorate which is both ambivalent and conflicted about immigration policy. Majorities think there are too many illegal immigrants entering the US but that sending them home is not the answer.

Certainly the most vocal opponents could still derail any “consensus” deal that is worked out but if a majority of Americans think the plan was developed in good faith and with an eye towards resolving the broader public’s competing concerns, those opponents could be marginalized in the same way Republicans have been on issue after issue during the first months of Obama’s term.

Ahoy There!

There a few things more certain in life than this: Hyper-partisans (left and right) will twist everything and anything to fit their worldview. Today’s case in point comes courtesy of Red State and a contributor who speculates that the Somali pirates who have attacked and apparently captured an American-flagged cargo vessel did so because they know Barack Obama is a wuss.

While the author is correct no U.S. flagged vessel has been successfully attacked by pirates to this point it’s worth noting how few American-flagged vessels there are any more. The number of major cargo ships flagged (registered) in the U.S. is fewer than 200 because it is so much more expensive for shipping companies to register in the U.S. than in countries like Panama and Liberia which have low costs (and large fleets as a result — check page 36 of this report if you’re really really interested).

It’s also worth noting American-flagged and owned vessels have been attacked since piracy took off in 2005 during the time when the presumably frighteningly-tough-as-nails President George W. Bush was in the White House including two U.S. Navy ships, two large passenger cruise liners, and two large bulk cargo ships. Perhaps the best reason to question the author’s premise was Saturday’s attack on an Israeli cargo ship.

If these guys will attack an Israeli ship they’ve either never heard of the Raid on Entebbe or they’ll go after any ship they see. I’d bet on the latter.

The Magic 30 Percent

Speaking of that wuss of a President, the evidence is now awfully solid that the Republican game plan (the Party of No) has accomplished one thing: It has built and maintained Obama’s disapproval ratings…at 30%.

A new Marist Poll out right now (check out their new website too) gives Obama an approval rating of 56% with 30% saying they disapprove of the job he’s doing. Those numbers are in line with a series of other polls in the last month even if the approval number is on the lower end of the range. And while some might argue the bloom is off the rose, a quick look at Real Clear Politics’s or the Polling Report’s running averages of all polls proves the point.

Both averages put Obama’s approval rating at a steady 60%+ since January while his disapproval rate has gone from the teens to around 30% where it plateaued in mid-February. That should concern the GOP since Obama only got 53% of the vote in November to John McCain’s 46%. That means 16 percentage points worth of McCain voters still don’t buy the GOP’s opposing message (and most don’t buy Obama either).

The worst news for Republicans is in these numbers from the Gallup Poll:

Since his Inauguration Obama’s support among Democrats and independents has stayed roughly the same. Only Republicans have become more dissatisfied. With self-identifying Republicans dropping to levels rivalling post-Watergate, the GOP clearly needs a new plan. Unless they really enjoy being in the minority.

Number Crunchers Rejoice!

Bucolic Columbia County

If you can’t wait for the actual votes to get counted in the special election upstate to replace Kirsten Gillibrand in the House, Nate over at 538 has some analysis that indicates Democrat Scott Murphy could end up winning this most-Republican-district-in-New-York. What’s interesting is where the most absentee ballots are coming from: Columbia County, which we explained several times could prove pivotal because of all the second-home NYC residents who vote up there (where their votes obviously count far more because there are actually two parties in Columbia County).

Republican Jim Tedisco has been making the rounds to conservative radio shows and columnists making noises about Democratic intimidation of local election boards but as a weekend resident in the district (who does NOT vote there) I can tell you that any intimidation would probably be by the election board members. These are hardy peeps in the 20th who are unlikely to take any crap or suggestions from anybody. Further the notion that the state Board of Elections would be denying military ballots in order to favor a Democrat is equally absurd.

Remember this: Tedisco is being represented in any court action by former Republican Congressman James Walsh. Walsh is one of the four members of the State Board of Elections. So give it rest guys.

We should know who gets the distinct privilege of representing me (on weekends) in a week — or sooner.