Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-New York)

From the moment she was appointed Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand has been discounted. The papers — especially the New York Post but others as well — have consistently called into question her election prospects in 2010. But this morning’s New York Times has a piece that inadvertently makes the case that Gillibrand is on her way to winning in 2010 as the next Chuck Schumer.

The Times notes that many of Hillary Clinton’s inner and not-so-inner circle of advisers, fundraisers, and hangers-on have gone to work for Senator Gillibrand. The paper also takes the conventional wisdom route on her prospects:

Ms. Gillibrand, who was twice elected to Congress from a mostly white and rural district stretching from Hudson to the Adirondacks, still faces significant obstacles as she seeks to be elected in her own right. She is not well known downstate, where Democratic primaries are lost and won. In a recent Marist College poll, only 18 percent of Democrats rated Ms. Gillibrand as doing an excellent or good job, while more than half were unsure. And she must quell suspicions among some black and Latino leaders over positions she has taken on gun rights, immigration and other issues.

All true but also historically nonsensical. Hillary, like Gillibrand, had some major obstacles when she began her quest for the Senate in 1999 (or was it her quest for the White House…). Her poll numbers were pretty lousy considering she was the First Lady (43%-43% in the Marist Poll of April 1999 against Rudy Giuliani after her “listening tour”) and she was doing poorly with the very constituency she would need to win (suburban voters, especially women, favored Giuliani by double digits in a June 1999 Quinnipiac Poll). Note that both of those polls were closer to election day than Kirsten Gillibrand is right now and her poll numbers are arguably much better.

The latest Marist Poll on Gillibrand (March 3) shows her beating two hypothetical opponents Peter King and George Pataki (Really?!? Pataki? That seems pretty unlikely). And that’s with only 18% of voters giving her an excellent or good rating (the equation often called an “approval rating”). The key is to look a little father right on the chart to the “unsure” category where 50% of voters reside. Gillibrand is basically unknown and for a candidate with strong fundraising and a strong bench of political operatives that’s more of an opportunity than a problem.

Clinton had the uphill battle of convincing New Yorkers who had an opinion about her to change it. Political operatives will tell you that’s one of the trickier things to do in campaigns especially when your opponent is well-funded. Remember Giuliani and his replacement on the Republican line Rick Lazio raised and spent twice as much money as Hillary did by election day.

In contrast Gillibrand has the much easier task of selling herself to undecided, uninformed voters. Mike Bloomberg will tell you that’s a winnable position with the right message and enough money to sell it. So will Chuck Schumer.

In June 1998 — just three months before the Democratic primary between Geraldine Ferraro, Mark Green, and Chuck Schumer, Schumer who was running in third place with 59% of voters having “No Opinion” on him according to a poll at the time. Three months — and a lot of advertising later — Schumer beat the other two on his way to famously unseating Republican incumbent Al D’Amato (the putzhead election).

Which brings us to the other speed bump Gillibrand faces according to the local pundits is a primary. Democrats, we are told, don’t like her positions on guns and Latinos in particular don’t like her immigration record. That’s true at this moment but primary election day (if there is one) is almost 18 months away. The Carolyns (McCarthy and Maloney) have no track records of running big-time campaigns and have shown relatively little ability to raise the tens of millions that will be needed to win in 2010 and then run again in 2012. Neither is another Ferraro.

So while Gillibrand may be seen as Governor Paterson’s choice and be predicted to suffer for it, she was actually Senator Chuck Schumer’s choice and as we have argued repeatedly here, that makes her the odds-on favorite to have a free and clear run in 2010. Schumer is clearly now the leader of the state party and one of the two or three most powerful members of the Senate. If he wants Gillibrand to be the Democratic candidate for New York’s other Senate seat she will have all the help Schumer’s imprimatur can deliver. And if anybody knows what it takes to win a Senate seat in New York, it’s Chuck.

NYC Mayor Michael Bloomberg

You gotta hand it to Mayor Michael Bloomberg. He royally pisses the voting public off with his term limits power grab but they still lovvvvve him.

That’s what a new Quinnipiac Poll out Tuesday seems to suggest. By a margin of 56% to 42% NYC voters disapprove of the term limit extension Bloomberg and the City Council pushed through for themselves last year. So that’s bad news for Bloomy, right? Of course not!

A big majority of those same voters say they not only want Bloomberg to run but that they’ll vote for him over two potential Democratic opponents. Bloomberg beats Anthony Weiner or Bill Thompson by almost identical double-digit margins (50-35 and 50-34 respectively).

While a NY1 Poll puts the Bloomberg-Weiner match much closer both polls show Bloomberg with a very high approval rating (64-29 in NY1 Poll and 69-25 in Q) that makes a mockery of the notion that at this early stage there’s a real race for Mayor.

Bloomberg will spend tens of millions more than whichever Democrat emerges to challenge him and voters don’t mind that either. Quinnipiac asked if voters thought Bloomberg bankrolling his own campaign A) freed him from being beholden to special interests or B) made it look like he was trying to buy the election. By a margin of 54-40 voters chose the “freed from special interests” line. Big smiles all around Camp Bloomy.

The bottom line is that with these poll numbers, more money to spend per vote than any candidate in history, and a top team of hired guns (including part of Obama’s micro-targeting group that so successfully ushered in the new era of get out the vote operations) Bloomberg has very little going against him.

Anthony Weiner would certainly make a fiery opponent and would likely connect with some disaffected blue-collar voters angry about the economy. But it’s hard to see how that’s enough to overcome Bloomberg’s huge advantages. If voters don’t dislike Bloomberg right now with term limits fresh on their minds what’s going to make them learn to dislike him later?

Thompson’s run would be different and potentially more effective if he could mount a real grass-roots rebellion among African American and Latino voters but what’s going to fuel that other than class resentment (which is Weiner’s theme)? And when has Thompson shown he can or will run that kind of contest?

So Boss Bloomberg should sleep soundly tonight knowing that less than ten months from election day there are virtually no signs that his chances of winning a third term are anything but golden.

Gov. David Paterson

Oh how quickly the news has moved on from Kirsten Gillibrand the “accidental Senator” to David Paterson the “doomed Governor.” Newspapers across the state from Buffalo to Gotham wrote up Paterson’s big problems this morning after the botched selection process to replace Hillary Clinton.

Now two new polls, one from Quinnipiac and the other from Siena, make several things abundantly clear:

1. Pundits be damned, the public is NOT blaming Paterson for the Caroline Kennedy fiasco (despite Liz Benjamin’s excellent report this morning indicating the public might want to think again).

2. Paterson is still widely popular, and all things being equal (which they are not but chill — I’m getting there), he is not in a particularly tough position for a campaign that will begin a year from now.

3. Kirsten Gillibrand will be elected Senator in 2010.

First, the Q poll shows voters are giving Paterson a pass on the Caroline mess blaming Kennedy and her people by huge margin (49% say it was Caroline’s fault, 15% say it was Dave’s). Furthermore his approval rating is down pretty significantly from it’s high last August (64% then, 50% now) but considering all the bad news about the budget, his State of the State, and Caroline he can’t be too unhappy that only 30% disapprove of the way he’s doing (that’s roughly the percentage of Republicans in the state so whaddya expect?) Finally there’s great news for Gillibrand here.

Voters who say they have an opinion like her 25% to 10%. Nice, but focus on the 63% who don’t have an opinion. For an aggressive campaigner and fundraiser who’s taken classes at the Chuck Schumer School of Politics, 63% undecided is pure gold. Gillibrand skillfully went to work moments after she was announced last Friday and hasn’t stopped. The poll shows she has great appeal upstate and among Republicans — even among NYC Dems who critics say will abandon her over her support for gun rights she has positive ratings and a vast pool of undecideds. Combine that with the support of her mentor and macher Senator Schumer and Gillibrand is the closest thing to a sure bet you’re gonna get in politics.

So back to Paterson’s polls and his problems. While his approval rating is still pretty good the Siena poll put him into a head to head match-up with Attorney General Andrew Cuomo and found it to be thisclose in a hypothetical primary (35% Paterson to 33% Cuomo). Oooo delicious, right? Not so fast.

Andrew Cuomo has clawed his way back to respectability after primarying Carl McCall in 2002 thus earning what looked to be the everlasting enmity of African-American (and plenty of other) Dems who thought it mighty uncool for the brash young scion to try and keep New York from possibly electing it’s first black Governor. So what’s he gonna do now that he’s in (almost) everyone’s good graces? Take on New York’s actual first black Governor? Not on your life unless top African American politicos like Rangel, Sharpton, and some guy named Obama throw Dave over the transom. If that happens there won’t be a primary because Paterson will resign or find himself Ambassador of [insert obscure country here].

Finally remember who now rules the Democratic Party of the State of New York. King Charles. Schumer no more wants Andrew Cuomo in the Governor’s Office than he wanted the ambitious competitor in the Senate. If Paterson can muddle through this budget year (and I’m betting he can with the help of some big $$ help from Schumer and Obama) Schumer will do whatever it takes to make sure he stays in office and the politial pecking order stays the same. With Schumer firmly on top.

UPDATE 1/27/09

A third poll from Marist may give Paterson more pause. Marist has his “How am I doin’?” numbers at 46% Excellent/Good versus 48% Fair/Poor and shows him losing to either Rudy Giuliani or Bloomberg (who almost certainly would never run) albeit by narrow margins.