Absentee Ballots: Which Count?

The daily dribble of news upstate in the 20th district recount “drama” brings two interesting posts. Nate Silver at 538 does one of his masterful number-crunching jobs to predict that Democrat Scott Murphy will eventually prevail by about 540 votes over Republican Jim Tedisco. What’s really interesting there though is Nate’s take on the Republican’s jaw-dropping challenge of Kirsten Gillibrand’s absentee ballot. He thinks it will make it harder for Tedisco to mount a rematch if Murphy wins. Maybe but Nate may be getting ahead of himself on this one.

You’ll recall that Republicans have been challenging nearly every Democratic absentee ballot throughout the district, notably focusing on second-home owners in Columbia County who had their ballots mailed to New York City addresses. As we showed Tuesday, the only problem with that argument is New York’s courts have ruled repeatedly that second home owners have a right to vote in the locations of their second homes.

Then came Tedisco’s challenge to Gillibrand’s ballot. Remember Gillibrand held this very House seat until twelve weeks ago when she was appointed to fill Hillary Clinton’s vacated Senate seat. Tedisco says the ballot isn’t valid because she showed up in the district Election Night at Murphy’s “not-yet-a-victory” party and therefore should have voted in person.

Unfortunately for Republicans the law is pretty straightforward — one must have a “good-faith” belief that one won’t be able to cast one’s vote in person — since Gillibrand is a Senator and the Senate calendar can change that seems like a pretty “good-faith” reason for voting absentee.

So Nate thinks Tedisco’s challenge could backfire should Murphy win and Tedisco want a rematch in 2010. While that’s certainly possible it’s worth remembering that New York voters are used to this kind of thing. The nation may think what happened in Florida in 2000 or Minnesota in 2008-09 is rare, these bloody battles are commonplace here. A State Senate seat in Queens voted on in November wasn’t finally decided until early February. Another seat in Westchester took three months to sort out in 2004. So New Yorkers are pretty jaded when it comes to long drawn-out ballot counting fiascos. If Tedisco loses and wants a rematch his biggest problem won’t be the way he fought absentee ballots but rather the changing nature of the district.

The other interesting post comes from Jimmy Vielkind at Politicker who gets a quote from the guy who eventually won that seat in Westchester back in 2004 by 18 votes, former State Senator Nick Spano. Spano notes that it’s always better to be up in the count before you appear before the judge who will be deciding which ballots to count and which to set aside. That puts the burden on the judge to open him or herself up to criticism that he or she “overturned the will of the people.” Gotta love NY politics.

Of course there’s also some conspiracy theory action going around — in this case over Supreme Court Justice James Brands who a local blogger writes up as a pretty questionable character when it comes to election decisions involving his fellow Republicans. Brands is the one who will decide which ballots get counted and which don’t. If he ends up discarding enough ballots to give Tedisco the win this case will end up in the state’s appellate courts which are — believe it or not — highly regarded for being fair.

So Murphy gets seated in June? Maybe he and Franken can have a victory lunch together since they’ll both be arriving about the same time at this rate.

A City Slicker's 2nd Home

So it’s those city folks, huh? They’re the ones trying to steal this election from a good Republican. That’s the claim Republicans supporting Congressional candidate Jim Tedisco are making as the results of the first special election since Barack Obama became President enter their second week of counting.

As Jimmy Vielkind at Politicker and Leigh Hornbeck at Capitol Confidential report in their excellent posts about the verrrry slow hand counting of absentee ballots in Columbia County, Republicans are objecting to nearly every ballot sent to addresses in New York City arguing that these second home owner don’t have a right to vote in Columbia County since it is not the location of their primary residence.

FULL DISCLOSURE: I am a second home owner in Columbia County but am registered to vote in New York City and therefore did not participate in this particular election.

The GOP’s lead lawyer is James Walsh who told Vielkind: “We have research to indicate that many of these people who reside on the Upper West Side and in Florida and other areas live there primarily, and they are continuously requesting absentee ballots in Columbia County when they are not eligible to vote there.”

Get Real has sat through enough hand counts and recounts and court sessions featuring famous New York election lawyers to known that any argument is fair game in the war to keep votes from being counted. Democrats and Republicans play the game with equal relish and vigor.

The problem with Walsh’s argument is it’s total b*llshit. New York courts have ruled repeatedly and conclusively that second home owners can vote in the towns and counties in which those homes are located. In fact a ruling handed down last October cites much of the history (read it here — go to page 3 for the definitive section) and makes it clear that the votes in Columbia County should be — and certainly will eventually be counted.

Republicans are objecting because these city slickers are almost surely votes for Democrat Scott Murphy who leads Tedisco by 25 votes (out of about 156,000 cast) as of Monday afternoon. Last month Get Real identified this contingent of voters (along with new high-tech residents of several other counties in the district) as the key to determining whether a Democrat could win three elections in a row in New York’s most Republican Congressional district.

Indeed the county-by-county results so far (there are 10 counties represented in the 20th District) back up our original argument that the district has changed markedly and is far more independent and less Republican than many observers believe. That, coupled with the drawn-out vote-counting, means that whoever eventually is declared the winner will not (nor will his party) be able to successfully brag about this election holding larger meaning.

Tip O’Neill famously said all politics is local. In this case, so will be the election result in the 20th. Whenever they finish counting the ballots.

Ahoy There!

There a few things more certain in life than this: Hyper-partisans (left and right) will twist everything and anything to fit their worldview. Today’s case in point comes courtesy of Red State and a contributor who speculates that the Somali pirates who have attacked and apparently captured an American-flagged cargo vessel did so because they know Barack Obama is a wuss.

While the author is correct no U.S. flagged vessel has been successfully attacked by pirates to this point it’s worth noting how few American-flagged vessels there are any more. The number of major cargo ships flagged (registered) in the U.S. is fewer than 200 because it is so much more expensive for shipping companies to register in the U.S. than in countries like Panama and Liberia which have low costs (and large fleets as a result — check page 36 of this report if you’re really really interested).

It’s also worth noting American-flagged and owned vessels have been attacked since piracy took off in 2005 during the time when the presumably frighteningly-tough-as-nails President George W. Bush was in the White House including two U.S. Navy ships, two large passenger cruise liners, and two large bulk cargo ships. Perhaps the best reason to question the author’s premise was Saturday’s attack on an Israeli cargo ship.

If these guys will attack an Israeli ship they’ve either never heard of the Raid on Entebbe or they’ll go after any ship they see. I’d bet on the latter.

The Magic 30 Percent

Speaking of that wuss of a President, the evidence is now awfully solid that the Republican game plan (the Party of No) has accomplished one thing: It has built and maintained Obama’s disapproval ratings…at 30%.

A new Marist Poll out right now (check out their new website too) gives Obama an approval rating of 56% with 30% saying they disapprove of the job he’s doing. Those numbers are in line with a series of other polls in the last month even if the approval number is on the lower end of the range. And while some might argue the bloom is off the rose, a quick look at Real Clear Politics’s or the Polling Report’s running averages of all polls proves the point.

Both averages put Obama’s approval rating at a steady 60%+ since January while his disapproval rate has gone from the teens to around 30% where it plateaued in mid-February. That should concern the GOP since Obama only got 53% of the vote in November to John McCain’s 46%. That means 16 percentage points worth of McCain voters still don’t buy the GOP’s opposing message (and most don’t buy Obama either).

The worst news for Republicans is in these numbers from the Gallup Poll:

Since his Inauguration Obama’s support among Democrats and independents has stayed roughly the same. Only Republicans have become more dissatisfied. With self-identifying Republicans dropping to levels rivalling post-Watergate, the GOP clearly needs a new plan. Unless they really enjoy being in the minority.

Number Crunchers Rejoice!

Bucolic Columbia County

If you can’t wait for the actual votes to get counted in the special election upstate to replace Kirsten Gillibrand in the House, Nate over at 538 has some analysis that indicates Democrat Scott Murphy could end up winning this most-Republican-district-in-New-York. What’s interesting is where the most absentee ballots are coming from: Columbia County, which we explained several times could prove pivotal because of all the second-home NYC residents who vote up there (where their votes obviously count far more because there are actually two parties in Columbia County).

Republican Jim Tedisco has been making the rounds to conservative radio shows and columnists making noises about Democratic intimidation of local election boards but as a weekend resident in the district (who does NOT vote there) I can tell you that any intimidation would probably be by the election board members. These are hardy peeps in the 20th who are unlikely to take any crap or suggestions from anybody. Further the notion that the state Board of Elections would be denying military ballots in order to favor a Democrat is equally absurd.

Remember this: Tedisco is being represented in any court action by former Republican Congressman James Walsh. Walsh is one of the four members of the State Board of Elections. So give it rest guys.

We should know who gets the distinct privilege of representing me (on weekends) in a week — or sooner.

The winner? Not so fast.

So the first special election of the new year has come and gone and like so many elections nowadays, it’s too close to call. With all the regular votes counted across 10 upstate New York counties Democrat Scott Murphy leads Republican Jim Tedisco by 59 votes out of the almost 145 thousand cast. We should have a winner, with any luck, in a few weeks…or months.

In the meantime there are a few things we now know that we could only guess at before the voters spoke:

• In claiming that this would be a referendum on Obama and the Democrats, national Republicans failed to heed the warnings of local party members who argued this contest would be very close despite it being the most Republican House district in the state.
• As Get Real pointed out over the weekend, the 20th is not so much a Republican district any more as it is an increasingly independent one and that appeared to favor the non-politician — Murphy. Look where he won — in precisely the places we noted had influxes of younger, high-tech workers (Warren and Rensselaer Counties) and relocated New York City refugees (Dutchess and Columbia).
• Voters are still engaged. Turnout appears to be around 36% which is pretty amazing for a special election called just months after the longest Presidential campaign in history. By comparison 54% of registered voters turned out for the regular election in 2006 in which Kirsten Gillibrand took the seat for Democrats. Turnout in the teens is not unexpected in most special elections.
• Democrats can still win in conservative districts because they have not been blamed by a majority of voters for the economic mess and the attempts to fix it. In fact polls in the 20th showed very broad support for the stimulus package. The flip side of this is that Republicans have done themselves no favors by being the party of “no.” Recognizing this Tedisco refused to take a position on the stimulus until last week. The party is doing some of it’s members no favors.
• The Obama campaign machine continues to be a formidable beast. Voters in the 20th who’d linked to the Obama campaign through email or text messages last year got at least two last minute emails “from” Obama urging them to go to the polls.

While these facts won’t stop both sides from spinning the fact that their won’t be an official winner for awhile is likely to mute the DC brigades and force them to look for other talismans as to what voters are thinking.

Columbia County

What happens this coming Tuesday in towns like Claverack and Surprise and Truthville is going to set insider Washington abuzz. That’s when voters in those and a few hundred other towns and villages in the 20th Congressional district of New York decide whether a Republican or Democrat replaces Kirsten Gillibrand as their Congressperson.

Special elections always give Beltway insiders something to talk about outside the proper campaign season and this one is especially rich, coming just 10 weeks (really!) after Barack Obama took office with sky-high public approval ratings. Everybody is prepared to spin this as something large and significant — something that speaks to a larger national truth. But will it? As someone who has a house in the district I would caution against jumping to any conclusions.

The 20th has an odd recent history — despite being the most Republican House district in the state (here’s the list if you’re into that kind of thing) with 67,000 more registered Republicans than Democrats, Gillibrand was able to win the seat in 2006 as part of the nationwide Democrats-winning-Republican-seats midterm elections that threw control of the House to Dems.

Gillibrand was aided by an incumbent who to some degree took his reelection for granted and ran into last minute legal problems with claims that he had fought with his wife and that the State Police had helped cover it up. Still, Gillibrand was no shoe-in and only won by raising substantial funds and outworking John Sweeney throughout the campaign.

In November national Republicans targeted Gillibrand as a “must-remove” incumbent but ran a little-known (to voters) former state party chairman with an unfortunately patrician name (Sandy Treadwell) who outraised and outspent Gillibrand but was incapable of outshining her. It didn’t hurt that Obamamania was sweeping the country.

But that was then and this is now. Obamamania has diminished, especially among Republicans who actually voted for him. So the GOP has gone all-in on this race (new GOP chair Michael Steele has promised a victory) hoping to use a win here to make the case that the tide has turned and the bottom of the Republican market has been reached.

Democrats, on the other hand, are playing to win, sort of (Murphy has his own money but support from Obama as been limited to a mailing), but if they don’t they will argue that a loss means nothing. Nothing other than some very Republican-leaning districts are bound to be won back by Republicans eventually.

Should Democrat Scott Murphy win, of course, the roles will be reversed and Democrats will say this special election proves voters approve of all the party has done in Washington in these last 10 weeks. Republicans will simply have to lick their wounds. There is much greater downside risk here for the GOP.

None of these arguments are really as clean-cut as that though. As the Times front-paged Saturday, Murphy the successful businessman, may face anti-business backlash from voters incensed by the AIG bonus mess among other things. And Republican Jim Tedisco, who pitifully refused to support or oppose the stimulus plan (which is very popular in the 20th), might still be punished for being a career politician who spent the last 27 years in the loathed New York State legislature.

While national concerns may drive voters in this district it’s worth looking a bit deeper than the Rep/Dem split shown in the registration numbers. While there are about 181,000 registered Republicans and only 113,000 Democrats there are 127,000 independent or Independence Party voters (many people register for the Independence Party thinking they are registering as independents which are actually called “blank” voters in New York). Those independents hold the key to why the 20th is not such a simple nut to crack.

Looking over the results from 2006 and 2008 Gillibrand only lost one of the district’s 10 counties in 2006 and none in 2008. Murphy is not likely to repeat that performance but where Gillibrand won the most votes is telling. A district once dominated by Saratoga County (Tedisco’s home stomping grounds) is now more evenly split between Saratoga and a group of counties in the southern end of the sprawling district. Columbia, Dutchess, and Greene Counties total roughly the same vote produced in Saratoga and these counties have changed markedly in a decade.

Following 9/11 the exodus of New York City residents eager to find a simpler life led thousands to relocate to these counties. In Columbia County more than half my neighbors are transplants. Many weekenders even register to vote in these counties figuring their votes count more here than in the city. Then there are the new legion of highly-educated workers associated with Sematech who have moved to Rensselaer, Saratoga, and Warren Counties and brought their independent to liberal political beliefs with them. The 20th is not what it was and registration figures lag in accurately describing it.

If Murphy wins it probably does NOT mean the nation as a whole supports what Democrats are doing in Washington (they may but this race won’t prove it) any more than if Tedisco wins it means Americans have lost faith in the President and the Democrats.

The story here is more parochial and more basic. In a changing district, will the old guard maintain it’s mojo by turning out in big numbers? Or will the newcomers show their muscle as they become the new majority in a “new 20th”?

The fact that this is what this race is really about won’t stop the DC gang from drawing every other possible conclusion from the results but at least you are now forearmed and forewarned.